Thinking about the (real) playoffs

I don't want to put any jinxes on Montreal's run-up to the playoffs, but it looks like we'll have three Canadian teams in the post-season this year.  The Flames are being called the biggest disappointment of the season - they are for me (they're my second team).  They still cling to the faintest hope, but the Avalanche are going to have to lose pretty much everything for that to happen.  The Leafs, apparently, were just mathematically eliminated, though I had them out in mid-October.  Just before the Oilers.

The Senators seem to be in fairly good shape for a higher seed finish - you don't really want to finish #8 in the East, or even #7.  But the Sens look to me like they'll have another one-and-out playoffs.  That's just the way they do things.  The Canucks might look like Canada's best bet, with their incredible offensive power and a very, very good goaltender.  But everyone wonders about Vancouver's defense.  And there are stronger teams in the West, of course.

No, I think it's the Habs that have the best chance for a long run this year.  If they can organize enough points against the mainly-out-of-the-playoff teams they have left, they won't have to play Washington and Pittsburgh in the first two rounds.  With Plekanec, Camalleri, Gionta, Gomez, and the Kostitsyns they finally have some fire-power, and I think they have the best goaltending in the East (yes, even better than the Devils).  Their defense is often better than last year, though their powerplay is sputtering badly lately.

Watch out for Detroit (not Chicago), Washington (not San Jose), Pittsburgh (not Buffalo).  My dark horse pick isn't Phoenix, it's Nashville.

The Final Four

There's only Duke left for me, which is disappointing, though I think they'll go on to win the tournament.  Quite surprising to have two #5 seeds in the Final Four.

Elite Eight

I always hope for five of 8 in the Elite Eight, and I was close to that last night.  But Tennessee held off Ohio State, and I was down to 4.  My winners:

• Butler
• Kansas State (unfortunately, these two play each other)
• West Virginia
• Duke

So to salvage a pretty good tournament, I'll need Kansas State and Duke to push through, and for Duke to win.  Of course, it's looking good for the Blue Devils to take it all.

About the tournament

I have a confession to make;

In all the years I've watched the Tournament, all the times I skipped school, called in sick to work (actually, I've never done that), watched it in hotel rooms on University field trips, and the time that we lived in Terrace and everybody went away for the weekend and I got caught up in the story of my all-time favorite NCAA Cinderella Story team Loyola Marymount as they put up 111 points in their first round game, and then a staggering 149 points on defending champion Michigan.

All those times, I never picked a bracket.

I've had friends ask me to join their online leagues, but I can never get it done before the tournament begins.

I find it really difficult to know what's happening with the mid-majors. The only coverage of schools like that we get here is Gonzaga. I don't usually know that a team like Cornell is good, or Butler, until they end up in the Sweet 16 (or knock off a number 1, sorry Orange).

Maybe next year.

This was super hard to write as Xavier and K-State play THE GAME OF THE CENTURY. never miss a game that Gus Johnson calls. he's a magnet for crazy plays and drama.

Dean's March Madness Bracket

You saw it here first. [one small error - I had missed writing in the winner of Tennessee/Ohio St.: it will be Ohio State, but it doesn't matter, since they'll lose to Kansas in the Elite Eight - I also see I missed putting Texas A+M in their second-round spot (over Purdue)]

Friday: not a bad first day - I went 11-5.  But, and here's the thing,

I PICKED OHIO OVER GEORGETOWN!  OHIO!!  OVER FRIGGIN' GEORGETOWN!!!

Not bad, picking a #14 seed over a #3 seed.  Of course, I missed #11 Old Dominion, or Old Dominoes, as I like to say, over the #6 seed The Fightin' Irish.  And #13 Murray State over #4 Vanderbilt.  Lucky that Villanova pulled out their game over Robert Morris, since I have the Wildcats going to the Elite Eight.

Wins
Kansas
N. Iowa
Tennesee
Ohio!!!!
Butler
Kansas State
Kentucky
New Mexico
Baylor
St. Mary's
Villanova

Losses
Vanderbilt (lost to Murray St.)
Florida (lost to BYU)
Texas (lost to Wake Forest)
Marquette (lost to Washington, but Go Huskies! anyway)
Notre Dame (lost to Old Dominoes)

In Friday's games, I know that a lot of people chose #13 Siena over #4 Purdue, but I don't think so.  My upset picks are #13 Houston over #4 Maryland, and #11 Minnesota over #6 Xavier.  Things are evolving according to plan...

No mustard