My Mad Men avatar - recognize me?

semi finals. and finals.

i totally forgot to put my posts for the last round.

i had the Hawks over SJ, though certainly not in 4.

and i was going to go with the Habs again, so i lost there.

i have the hawks with the Cup. i did all along, though they supposed to be beating the Caps.

while i'm at it, i've got the Lakers too. but i only called that after tonight. for them, winning games 1 and 3 is statistically the end of the series. they're just too strong up front. i guess if Ray Allen can break a record every game from here on out, the Celtics have a chance - but how likely is that?

and, speaking of basketball, i also have LeBron staying in Cleveland. maybe Chicago is the best destination - James + Rose + Noah sounds very good - but the Cavs seem so close already. the question is; does he want rings, or does he want to be Jay-Z?

i don't know if i can call groups in the World Cup - i just don't follow it that closely - but i'll take Argentina for the title. in some completely wacky way, Maradonna's Madness will work.

i will however be cheering hardest for Ghana.

Who Cares?

Right - who cares about the Stanley Cup anymore?  Let's talk World Cup!  Here are my picks for 2010 in South Africa:

Group A: going through will be Mexico and South Africa.  I predict France will flame out.

Group B: a no-brainer: Argentina & Nigeria.  Go Super Eagles!

Group C: England & (though I don't think they're that good) the U.S.A.  These two had lucky draws!  England is strong!

Group D: Germany, obviously, and Ghana.

Group E: Netherlands, of course.  I'm a big fan of the African teams, and I think they'll all benefit from playing in their home continent.  But I'm picking Denmark instead of Cameroon for the second spot.  This is a pretty strong group!

Group F: I don't think Italy is as strong as they once were, but this isn't a really tough group.  I'm picking Paraguay for the second spot, but just because I like the South American teams.  It could just as easily be Slovakia.  But not the kiwis!

Group G: I predict that being in the Group of Death will be an advantage for Brazil.  They'll go through, along with Portugal, but there will be a strong showing from the Cote d'Ivoire, and perhaps even the North Koreans.

Group H: Spain and Chile look to be the obvious choices here.

Two of these five teams will be in the finals:

Brazil, Spain, Argentina, Netherlands, Portugal.  My outsider pick: Nigeria I mean Mexico.  Oh, and Chicago in 6.

Round 2 De-Brief

Almost forgot to do this.

Previously, on The Fearful Porpentine...

Adrian was ahead after the first round, 4 series to 3, with one series tied.

In Round 2,

• Adrian picked SJ over Detroit in 7; I said SJ in 6, so I win!
• Adrian said Chicago over Vancouver in 7; I said Chicago in 6, so I win again!
• Isn't this exciting?
• I said Boston over Philly in 5; Adrian said 7, so Adrian wins.
• I cravenly picked Pittsburgh over Mtl in 6, but Adrian courageously & correctly picked the Habs in 7!  Great job!

Adrian is thus up 6 series to 5!

The Final Four

With the Bruins up 3-0 in the first period of their game with Philly, I'm going to assume that Boston dodged their once-in-a-generation choke, and will host the first game in the Conference finals.  But who will win that series?  I'll say Montreal in 6 (though I secretly believe/hope that the Habs will only take 4 games, especially if Markov gets up to speed before the series is too old).

Out West, I'll pick the Sharks, with their under-the-radar efficiency in finishing off their opponents (under my radar, anyway - I haven't paid too much attention to their first two quick series).  With Ovechkin and Crosby out, pretty much all of the star players left in these playoffs are in the San Jose-Chicago series.  Two really good teams there!  I'll say SJ in 6, but I'm hoping for a hard-fought 7-game series (unless Boston wins, in which case, Anyone But Boston!

****** Hard to believe, but it turns out the Bruins have done a choke for the ages.  Not sure if this is better or worse for Montreal.  Perhaps Boston had better goaltending, but Philly is probably feeling pretty confident right now.  I'll stay with my Habs in 6 (I mean 4) over the Habs.  And, of course, Anyone But Philly!

Round 2

You're right, Adrian, you are indeed ahead in these all-important Stanley Cup Sweepstakes.  I'll just have to try harder!  And I'll start by putting my Round 2 picks up late.  Not that I wouldn't have made these exact same picks before these series started :)

• San Jose over Detroit in 6 - the Red Wings will come back, but they're in too big a hole to this point.
• Chicago over Vancouver in 6 - the Canucks should have held on to their lead last night!
• Pittsburgh over Montreal in 6 - boy, wouldn't I like to be wrong here!
• Boston over Philly in 5 - it's always weird to look back on what might have happened if a Game 1 Overtime had gone the other way

just hold on a minute....

i think dean's made a little scoring error... i picked Detroit, he picked Phoenix.

that makes it 4 to 3 for me!

haha!

anyway, on to round 2;

chicago over vancouver in 7

yes, i know, the hawks were pathetic in game one, but i still think they have what it takes to take vancouver. i'm still not convinced that luongo has what it takes for stanley cup success. and the only thing worse than the canucks winning the cup would be the leafs winning the cup.

SJ over detroit in 7

i don't think it's san jose's year - i don't think it ever will be as long as the Regular Season Hero line continues to wait for the end of the playoffs before they play hard again - but their second line is rolling. and nabokov seems to be playing well now. by the way; when is he going to write another book anyway? he's been coasting on Lolita for way too long.

boston over philly in the number of games required. let's say 7.

sure, why not. sets up for a dramatic eastern final which is...

montreal over pittsburgh in 7

maybe i'm cheating a bit because i just watched pittsburgh get all in a panic about not being to score and lose game 2. (hey Flames fans; did you see the game today? do you still think throwing a lot of money at bouwmeester was a better idea than throwing a lot of money at cammalleri?) it's been nearly 20 years since i was habs fan, but i can get behind them a lot easier than the canucks. go habs!

Ummm

I'm just a tad surprised by the Habs coming back from 3-1 to beat the Ovechkins.

So, how did Adrian & I do in the first round?

• Montreal-Washington - Adrian said Caps in 5; I said Caps in 6 - Advantage Dean
• NJ-Philly - Adrian said NJ in 4; I said the same - Advantage Flyers
• Buffalo-Boston - Adrian said Buffalo in 7; I said Boston in 7 - Advantage Dean
• Pittsburgh-Ottawa - Adrian said Crosby in 6; I said in 7 - Advantage Adrian

Adrian knows the West better than I do; let's see how he does!

• San Jose-Colorado - Adrian said SJ in 4; I said SJ in 5 - Advantage Dean
• Chicago-Nashville - Adrian said Chicago in 6; I said Nashville in 7 - Advantage Adrian
• Vancouver-LA - Adrian said Canucks in 5; I said in 4 - Advantage Adrian
• Phoenix-Detroit - We both said 7 games; I said Detroit, Adrian said Phoenix - Advantage Dean

Final tally - Dean is up 4 series to 3, with one tie.

My picks for round one

Firstly, I have to agree with Dean that the Flames were the biggest disappointment of the year. And I say this happily as an Oiler fan, because we all think were it not for the Flames, it would have been us with that crown.

They would have been pummeled by the Sharks anyway...

So, let's get to it shall we? East first;

Washington over Montreal in 5

I don't see the Habs doing much, sorry. They do have some offense, but it's not Ovechkin/Semin/Backstrom/Green offense. Yes the Caps' goaltending is suspect, but unless the Canadiens can put up 6 every night, they won't win. I don't see that happening.

New Jersey over Philadelphia in 4

I can't stand the Flyers. I hope they blow up in a really embarrassing way. I don't like the Devils either, but I have to pick someone...

Buffalo over Boston in 7

Dean called it; this'll be the series to watch in the first round. I like Buffalo. No reason. Better play-by-play guy on TV I suppose.

Pittsburgh over Ottawa in 6

Sadly, the Sens have become the late 90's Oilers; pretty good year, but derailed by the Stars in the playoffs each year. They did get by the Stars once though, so who knows...

And the West;

San Jose over Colorado in 4

This looks like a repeat of the Vancouver/St.Louis series of last year; a team achieving a little sooner than they should getting handled by a very good team that's been there before. Colorado, just hope that you don't go the way of St.Louis.

Chicago over Nashville in 6

I don't think either of these teams have top notch goaltending. So they cancel each other out, and the power of the Hawks' skaters moves them through to round 2

Vancouver over L.A. in 5

This looks like a repeat of the Vancouver/St.Louis series of last year; a team achieving a little sooner - hey wait, I already said that. As much as I can't stand the Canucks, they'll win this easily.

Detroit over Phoenix in 7

A team with monster playoff experience getting white-hot at the exact right time against a team that's never been here (Sorry, but I refuse to consider the Coyotes to be the same 'franchise' as the Jets. Nothing the Jets ever did has any effect on this team). The Coyotes will pick up a couple wins and expose Jimmy Howard as the ECHL back-up goaltender he truly is, and then Babcock will put Osgood in, and it's over.

My Playoff Predictions

Montreal-Washington: Washington in 6 - a tougher series for the Caps than most think
New Jersey-Philadelphia: New Jersey in 4 - Boucher will be blown out in the first game
Buffalo-Boston: Boston in 7 - I predict lots of overtime games in this series
Pittsburgh-Ottawa: Pittsburgh in 7 - Sens will push the Penguins all the way

and in the West:

San Jose-Colorado: San Jose in 5 - Colorado is happy to make the playoffs this year
Chicago-Nashville: Nashville in 7 - Chicago's goaltending will let them down
Vancouver-Los Angeles: Vancouver in 4 - a powerhouse against another team happy to make the playoffs
Phoenix-Detroit: Phoenix in 7 - Detroit looks scary on paper, but Phoenix has a great team

Thinking about the (real) playoffs

I don't want to put any jinxes on Montreal's run-up to the playoffs, but it looks like we'll have three Canadian teams in the post-season this year.  The Flames are being called the biggest disappointment of the season - they are for me (they're my second team).  They still cling to the faintest hope, but the Avalanche are going to have to lose pretty much everything for that to happen.  The Leafs, apparently, were just mathematically eliminated, though I had them out in mid-October.  Just before the Oilers.

The Senators seem to be in fairly good shape for a higher seed finish - you don't really want to finish #8 in the East, or even #7.  But the Sens look to me like they'll have another one-and-out playoffs.  That's just the way they do things.  The Canucks might look like Canada's best bet, with their incredible offensive power and a very, very good goaltender.  But everyone wonders about Vancouver's defense.  And there are stronger teams in the West, of course.

No, I think it's the Habs that have the best chance for a long run this year.  If they can organize enough points against the mainly-out-of-the-playoff teams they have left, they won't have to play Washington and Pittsburgh in the first two rounds.  With Plekanec, Camalleri, Gionta, Gomez, and the Kostitsyns they finally have some fire-power, and I think they have the best goaltending in the East (yes, even better than the Devils).  Their defense is often better than last year, though their powerplay is sputtering badly lately.

Watch out for Detroit (not Chicago), Washington (not San Jose), Pittsburgh (not Buffalo).  My dark horse pick isn't Phoenix, it's Nashville.

The Final Four

There's only Duke left for me, which is disappointing, though I think they'll go on to win the tournament.  Quite surprising to have two #5 seeds in the Final Four.

Elite Eight

I always hope for five of 8 in the Elite Eight, and I was close to that last night.  But Tennessee held off Ohio State, and I was down to 4.  My winners:

• Butler
• Kansas State (unfortunately, these two play each other)
• West Virginia
• Duke

So to salvage a pretty good tournament, I'll need Kansas State and Duke to push through, and for Duke to win.  Of course, it's looking good for the Blue Devils to take it all.

About the tournament

I have a confession to make;

In all the years I've watched the Tournament, all the times I skipped school, called in sick to work (actually, I've never done that), watched it in hotel rooms on University field trips, and the time that we lived in Terrace and everybody went away for the weekend and I got caught up in the story of my all-time favorite NCAA Cinderella Story team Loyola Marymount as they put up 111 points in their first round game, and then a staggering 149 points on defending champion Michigan.

All those times, I never picked a bracket.

I've had friends ask me to join their online leagues, but I can never get it done before the tournament begins.

I find it really difficult to know what's happening with the mid-majors. The only coverage of schools like that we get here is Gonzaga. I don't usually know that a team like Cornell is good, or Butler, until they end up in the Sweet 16 (or knock off a number 1, sorry Orange).

Maybe next year.

This was super hard to write as Xavier and K-State play THE GAME OF THE CENTURY. never miss a game that Gus Johnson calls. he's a magnet for crazy plays and drama.

Dean's March Madness Bracket

You saw it here first. [one small error - I had missed writing in the winner of Tennessee/Ohio St.: it will be Ohio State, but it doesn't matter, since they'll lose to Kansas in the Elite Eight - I also see I missed putting Texas A+M in their second-round spot (over Purdue)]

Friday: not a bad first day - I went 11-5.  But, and here's the thing,

I PICKED OHIO OVER GEORGETOWN!  OHIO!!  OVER FRIGGIN' GEORGETOWN!!!

Not bad, picking a #14 seed over a #3 seed.  Of course, I missed #11 Old Dominion, or Old Dominoes, as I like to say, over the #6 seed The Fightin' Irish.  And #13 Murray State over #4 Vanderbilt.  Lucky that Villanova pulled out their game over Robert Morris, since I have the Wildcats going to the Elite Eight.

Wins
Kansas
N. Iowa
Tennesee
Ohio!!!!
Butler
Kansas State
Kentucky
New Mexico
Baylor
St. Mary's
Villanova

Losses
Vanderbilt (lost to Murray St.)
Florida (lost to BYU)
Texas (lost to Wake Forest)
Marquette (lost to Washington, but Go Huskies! anyway)
Notre Dame (lost to Old Dominoes)

In Friday's games, I know that a lot of people chose #13 Siena over #4 Purdue, but I don't think so.  My upset picks are #13 Houston over #4 Maryland, and #11 Minnesota over #6 Xavier.  Things are evolving according to plan...

No mustard

With 5 seconds left, Destiny panics...

i love this nike ad - even though they didn't put Canadian music on it. 'Wolf Like Me' by TV on the Radio is a kick-ass song. and they clearly guessed wrong on who would make up Canada's defense on the Olympic roster...



notice that Iginla is driving a Porsche Cayenne - 2 hours to practise in that would be fine by me.